U.S. Intel Report: Iran Halted Weapons Program In 2003

December 3, 2007 · Filed Under Intelligence, Iran, Nuclear Negotiations, World News, nuclear weapons

A new U.S. intelligence report concludes that Iran’s nuclear weapons development program has been halted since the fall of 2003 because of international pressure.

The finding is part of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iran that also cautions that Tehran continues to enrich uranium and still could develop a bomb between 2010 and 2015 if it decided to do so.

The conclusion that Iran’s weapons program was still frozen, through at least mid-2007, represents a sharp turnaround from the previous intelligence assessment in 2005. Then, U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development program. The new report concludes that Iran’s decisions are rational and pragmatic, and that Tehran is more susceptible to diplomatic and financial pressure than previously thought.

Some of the changes in the new report reflect the use of “open source” intelligence—public information from sources such as the news media and international organizations. An official said, for example, that photos taken at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility during U.N. inspections in 2002 were particularly useful in assessing the capabilities of the civilian uranium enrichment program.

The report did say that it’s crucial for the U.S. and it’s allies to keep up the pressure on the Iranian regime through tough sanctions and other diplomatic measures. An interesting piece of the report said the U.S. invasion of Iraq may have been partly to blame for the suspension of the weapons program.

The intelligence officials said they do not know all the reasons why Iran halted its weapons program, or what might trigger its resumption. They said they are confident that diplomatic and political pressure played a key role, but said the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Libya’s termination of its nuclear program and the implosion of the illegal nuclear smuggling network run by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan might also have influenced Tehran.

If the Iraq war did serve to scare the hell out of the various bad actors in that part of the world, then that ultimately is a very good thing.

-Chris Jones