The International Atomic Energy Agency issued its report on the status of Iran’s nuclear program, and it’s extremely troubling. What the report revealed is that Iran is much farther along in it’s weapons development than most intelligence agencies.

According to the report Iran has already installed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium. That is enough to begin production of highly enriched uranium on an industrial scale. This would allow Iran to produce enough highly enriched uranium to have a nuclear warhead within a year.

The installation of 3,000 fully-functioning centrifuges at Iran’s enrichment plant at Natanz is a “red line” drawn by the US across which Washington had said it would not let Iran pass. Israel has also expressed similar sentiments and is thought to already be ready to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

It is my belief that Israel will take military action if the U.S. does not. If Mexico was developing nuclear weapons while at the same time threating to wipe us of the map, you can be sure that the United States would take action.

While I do believe we must continue diplomatic talks, I don’t believe they will ultimately be successful. If diplomacy does fail I think one of two things will happen.

The first possibility is that Israel will launch air strikes against Iran and the U.S. will back them up with sea based cruise missiles and stealth aircraft.

The second possibility is that the U.S. will take military action against Iran and Israel will stand down. The purpose of the attack will be to not just delay the Iranian’s nuclear program, but to effectively end it. We would achieve this not with an Iraq-style invasion, but with a combination of air and sea assets.

Whatever happens, I suspect it will be happen within the next 4-6 months or at least before the Bush Administration leaves office. In light of the campaign rhetoric on the Democratic side, it’s not likely that a Democratic President would ever take military action in Iran or anywhere else.

-Chris Jones